A Lack of Color

Alberta Tories win overwhelming majority

DAWN WALTON AND KATHERINE O’NEILL

Globe and Mail Update

March 4, 2008 at 4:41 AM EST

CALGARY AND EDMONTON — In his first electoral test as party leader, Ed Stelmach led the Alberta Progressive Conservatives to a landslide victory last night – a feat even his predecessor Ralph Klein wasn’t counting on.The Tories, Canada’s oldest reigning political dynasty, were leading or elected in 72 ridings, with about 53 per cent of the popular vote.

Before the 28-day election campaign kicked off last month, Mr. Klein predicted the right-wing party would win its 11th consecutive majority, but likely lose seats because of an uneasy electorate.

“Welcome to Alberta’s century. Friends, today Albertans have spoken,” Mr. Stelmach told a packed room of cheering supporters in Edmonton. “We knew we have a big battle on our hands and the candidates came through.” When the Premier entered the room, his wife Marie by his side, Christina Aguliera’s pop song Ain’t No Other Man was blaring in the background.

“Ladies and gentleman, it’s not really how long you govern, it’s how well you govern,” he said to cheers of “Ed! Ed! Ed”.

Mr. Stelmach was handily re-elected in his own riding east of Edmonton. He has held his Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville seat since 1993, and won about 75 per cent of the popular vote last night.

Liberals were never able to exploit widespread sentiment in the province that it was time for a new government. An expected electoral breakthrough in Calgary, a long-time Tory stronghold, didn’t materialize for the Liberals, putting the future of party Leader Kevin Taft in serious doubt.

“All of us should hold our heads high for fighting for democracy because no matter what, trying to change the world for the better is always worth the effort,” Mr. Taft told crestfallen supporters in Edmonton.

He vowed to stay on as leader and not give the Tories “a free ride.”

In the early going, there were several tight races, although the Tories went on to win many of them.

However, even before the polls closed, the Liberals were complaining about irregularities at voting stations around the province.

Kieran Leblanc, executive director of the Liberals, said their campaign headquarters received phone calls from several upset scrutineers. Some told them people left stations without voting because the polls were disorganized and the line-ups too long.

The Tories, who have governed debt-free Alberta since 1971, also gained back seats in Edmonton. In the past, the oil-rich province’s capital city has been derisively dubbed Redmonton for its habit of electing left-leaning politicians.

Despite the desire for change and heavy advertising from special-interest groups urging voters to elect a new government, the electorate appeared swayed by Mr. Stelmach’s promise of “change that works for Albertans.”

When the writ was dropped last month, there were 60 Tories, 16 Liberals, four New Democrats and one Wildrose Alliance MLA. An Independent and a vacant seat rounded out the 83-seat legislature.

The Leader of the Wildrose Alliance, Paul Hinman, was in a tight race for his seat; the NDP had two seats and the Liberals nine.

“I don’t even know where to begin. It’s pretty shocking,” said Harold Jansen, a political science professor at the University of Lethbridge.

This was supposed to be the best opportunity for Mr. Taft’s party to surge, he said, but the vote fragmented badly among the opposition parties, leaving the Liberals to do some soul-searching.

“If you couldn’t win under these circumstances when are you ever going to win?” he said.

Mr. Stelmach needed a big win Monday night to silence critics, both inside and outside of the Tory Party, who complain he is a weak leader who lacks the vision to govern the country’s economic powerhouse.

Mr. Stelmach has bitterly rejected claims he has no plan for Alberta’s exploding growth and wealth, but frustration with stressed infrastructure, the high cost of living and the environmental impact of oil sands development has been growing.

On the doorsteps and in polls, voters said they wanted change. But none of these issues seemed serious enough and voters didn’t seem angry enough to actually throw out the Tories.

With some polls suggesting one in four voters were undecided in a province where protest votes are lodged by staying home, observers weren’t expecting turnout to be high and perhaps worse than 2004 when just 44.7 per cent of eligible voters cast ballots.

It was the worst turnout in Alberta’s history and the lowest of any provincial election in the country since 1970.

Although elections in Alberta are rarely nail-biters, with such a large number of uncommitted voters so late in the campaign, the Tories were worried their support could suffer massive erosion.

There was even talk that last night could have been 1993 all over again when Mr. Klein, then a new, untested leader, fought hard to keep power and managed to grab 51 seats to the Liberals 32. That was the closest the Liberals have come to forming a government since 1921.

Mr. Stelmach won the hotly contested leadership race to succeed Mr. Klein by getting key support from rural and Edmonton Tories. Early on, his heavy rural focus as rookie premier cost him support in Calgary, another worry among Tories last night.

Many political observers predicted his leadership would be in deep trouble if the party lost too many seats, especially in the big cities where the Liberals were hoping to gain ground.

While Mr. Taft ran a principled campaign under the slogan “It’s time,” he never managed to excite voters, leaving some observers to question his future as leader of the debt-ridden party.

Since Alberta joined Confederation in 1905, only four parties have formed governments. When political change comes, it’s wholesale and the winner is a party that had never governed the province before.

The Wildrose Alliance Party, a fledging right-wing party that sprang up in January, didn’t make much-needed gains into rural Alberta, the Tories’ bedrock of support.

While voter unease was voiced during the campaign in the countryside over a range of issues from the revamped royalty program to the lack of environmental protection rules, the Tories easily maintained their hold on the region.

The victory extends the Tory dynasty beyond 37 years, but a recent poll of Albertans by the Strategic Counsel suggests the party will have to address serious concerns about how the province is governed.

Keith Brownsey, a political scientist at Mount Royal College in Calgary, is concerned a large Tory majority could further isolate the province from the rest of the country on issues such as the environment.

Alberta has the fastest growth in greenhouse gas emissions and is responsible for one-third of the country’s total emissions. Yet Mr. Stelmach has pledged to let emissions rise until 2020 and then cut them by 14 per cent from 2005 levels by 2050, a policy criticized both in Alberta and across the country.

With a file from The Canadian Press